Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-09 2.679582 3.670375 5.081179 7.308960 1.088160e+01 1.666305e+01 27.369285
2025-02-16 1.787978 2.827325 4.621767 8.208739 1.596889e+01 3.433723e+01 91.744757
2025-02-23 1.188152 2.086326 3.881343 8.236687 2.060510e+01 6.409963e+01 331.234599
2025-03-02 0.804050 1.529193 3.155291 7.798259 2.473447e+01 1.153612e+02 1557.430359
2025-03-09 0.621048 1.281785 2.955067 8.692120 3.723071e+01 3.217173e+02 50210.408675
2025-03-16 0.486006 1.075062 2.734068 9.478798 5.578997e+01 1.109579e+03 NaN
2025-03-23 0.396318 0.935703 2.619295 10.775850 9.217360e+01 7.295835e+03 NaN
2025-03-30 0.326139 0.814597 2.484870 12.031862 1.545022e+02 1.678262e+05 NaN
2025-04-06 0.257340 0.666066 2.148607 11.629560 2.041385e+02 4.963125e+07 NaN
2025-04-13 0.203175 0.539641 1.814244 10.694048 2.440270e+02 NaN NaN
2025-04-20 0.173556 0.478964 1.714053 11.551636 4.178487e+02 NaN NaN
2025-04-27 0.154943 0.446876 1.721778 13.709471 9.792245e+02 NaN NaN
2025-05-04 0.139335 0.421322 1.761255 17.058044 3.378105e+03 NaN NaN
2025-05-11 0.121385 0.379384 1.681542 18.901346 1.049144e+04 NaN NaN
2025-05-18 0.102597 0.326633 1.496631 18.368162 2.215623e+04 NaN NaN
2025-05-25 0.086035 0.276874 1.293740 16.743191 3.531373e+04 NaN NaN
2025-06-01 0.077038 0.254795 1.252059 18.651278 3.049868e+05 NaN NaN
2025-06-08 0.068972 0.233531 1.199144 20.306857 1.416352e+07 NaN NaN
2025-06-15 0.062927 0.218751 1.181066 23.308921 NaN NaN NaN
2025-06-22 0.057404 0.204209 1.153006 26.251883 NaN NaN NaN
2025-06-29 0.050598 0.181417 1.040208 24.914936 NaN NaN NaN
2025-07-06 0.044306 0.159246 0.917497 22.331058 NaN NaN NaN
2025-07-13 0.040755 0.149037 0.888598 24.295260 NaN NaN NaN